Goldman Sachs is optimistic about soybeans and becomes the star of the year

The Goldman Sachs Group recently issued a report stating that corn will be the winner in the agricultural planting wars, and that soybeans will become the most likely agricultural product in the 2011/2012 season, and its prices are expected to rise.

The report of the Goldman Sachs Group pointed out that in the case of strong demand, due to repeated unpredictable weather conditions, the oversupply of agricultural products in 2010/2011, especially the surplus of corn has been significantly tightened. It is expected that the supply of corn in the northern hemisphere will increase in the next few months due to the combined effects of a return to normal levels of weather and an expansion of the planting area due to higher profit margins.

In the latest corn supply and demand forecast of Goldman Sachs Group, under normal weather conditions, U.S. inventory will recover moderately in 2011/2012. Therefore, Goldman Sachs expects that corn prices will slightly decline. Corn inventories are at a low level, and the recovery of Japanese imports and the possible growth of Chinese imports will keep prices high and fluctuate.

"Weather risk will push up prices." The Goldman Sachs report pointed out that although inventory is expected to increase, but inventory levels are still low, prices may thus rise to historically high levels. In addition, the expected low stocks also indicate a significant asymmetry in the response of maize prices to abnormal weather: New maize prices are significantly lower than forecast only when weather conditions are extremely favorable, but if the weather conditions are not satisfactory, This will inhibit the increase in stocks and push corn prices above the recent highs to create demand disruptions. Therefore, investors and consumers are advised to take advantage of the lower prices that may occur in the coming months.

The Goldman Sachs report still expects soybean prices to rise and cotton prices to decline. The report pointed out that soybeans are the most likely agricultural products in the 2011/2012 season to face the situation of supply shortage, so it is expected that the prices will increase. In the case of cotton, the increase in planted area announced by the US Department of Agriculture’s Plantation Intentions Report on March 31 may be higher than market forecasts, and therefore it is recommended that short-term short positions be selected.

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